SANA published images of Assad reading the letter of invitation to COP28
while an Emirati embassy diplomat looked on approvingly [photo credit:
SANA]
Water scarcity is also at the heart of the growing conflict between
countries in the region hosting Syrian refugees and local populations
(as was noted in our 19 April podcast with the ECFR’s Kelly Petillo.) This is particularly the case in Jordan, the second most water deprived country in the world, and Lebanon where water scarcity has been exacerbated by the ongoing political crisis.
The Gulf countries, their coffers swollen by the surge in oil prices
(only now beginning to subside), are well placed to absorb the body
blows inflicted upon them by climate change. Desalination projects in
the Gulf continue apace. Saudi Arabia has doubled its desalinated water output over the past decade and Riyadh-based ACWA Power has just announced a SAR 2.5 billion (US$667 million) Red Sea desalination project.
The UAE
derives nearly half of its water needs and almost all of its potable
water requirements from 70 desalination plants. According to a UAE
government website the plants account for 14% of the world’s total
production of desalinated water. That’s in a country with a population
of less than 10 million people, suggesting that water usage habits are
wasteful in the extreme, a problem other wealthy GCC states share.
Along with water scarcity, extreme climate events are dramatically
increasing in MENA. The intensity and frequency of sand and dust
storms (SDS) is wreaking havoc with food production and people’s health
as well as damaging industrial equipment and vehicles. A report by the Washington-based Arab Centre last year noted:
For all the disruption caused by this force majeure, much about
SDS, including how to mitigate the phenomenon’s effects, remains poorly
understood and has received relatively little scientific or policy
attention. Considering the growing prevalence of SDS across the Middle
East and North Africa, the storms’ impact on health, society, and the
economy must surely be addressed, and policies need to be instituted to
alleviate their effects.
Add SDS to a daunting list of challenges
that COP28 faces. Among them the extent to which developed countries
will fulfil commitments to assist developing states in transitioning to
green alternatives whilst ameliorating some of the worst impacts of
climate change. The realisation of a US$100 billion fund, supposed to
have been achieved in 2020, remains an unfulfilled obligation though C27
did commit developed countries to a loss and damage facility to help
poor nations cope with droughts, floods, storms and other climate
induced catastrophes. As well there was a promise to finally put money
where the mouth is and deliver on the US$100 billion fund.
And while the world attempts to hold warming to 1.5 degree C, that challenging goal is already slipping away in MENA. A recent report from the World Resources Institute noted
Every fraction of a degree of warming will intensify (climate
change) threats, and even limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degree
C is not safe for all. At this level of warming, for example, 950
million people across the world’s drylands will experience water stress,
heat stress and desertification, while the share of the global
population exposed to flooding will rise by 24%.
Sultan al-Jaber who was appointed the boss of COP28 in January to howls of protest
from climate activists – he is the CEO of ADNOC, the UAE state-owned
giant energy conglomerate – has a delicate balancing act ahead of him.
Though sceptics say he is the last person who should head up COP28,
others point out that he has a strong record
as an advocate of renewables. And ADNOC and Saudi Aramco together,
should they so decide, could have a significant positive impact if they
commit to drive forward renewables at what probably needs to be
something approaching warp speed. They will also, of course, want to
protect their dominant fossil fuels market position while doing so.
It may be that to achieve the US$100 billion it will be the Saudis
and the Emiratis who make the biggest contribution. And why not? Their
giant energy companies also have the biggest global carbon footprints.
Something else that Sultan al-Jaber and his boss Mohammed bin Zayed
may want to consider is this: UAE foreign policy has been aimed at
thwarting the democratic impulses that burst forth in the Arab Spring.
In the belief that authoritarians provide security and stability, the
Emiratis have backed dictators and generals across the region. Forget
climate change, these authoritarians have shown themselves much more
interested in engaging in a bloody contest for power (Sudan),
consolidating one man rule (Tunisia) or driving the economy into massive
debt (Egypt). Then there is the Emirati-supported warlord Khalifa
Haftar vying for power in Libya and the now newly rehabilitated Bashar
al-Assad. None of these power-hungry characters has shown either the
ability or the interest in dealing with the climate catastrophe that is
lying dead ahead for their people. If the UAE is seriously committed to
leading from the front in the most consequential battle the world faces
is it not time perhaps to give some thought to dumping the band of
thugs it has so assiduously cultivated across the region? Climate
change, unless it is met head on, will secure that which the UAE has
striven mightily to avoid: massive insecurity and instability as
hundreds of millions flee its impacts.